Decision-Dependent Distributionally Robust Markov Decision Process Method in Dynamic Epidemic Control

In this paper, we present a Distributionally Robust Markov Decision Process (DRMDP) approach for addressing the dynamic epidemic control problem. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is widely used to represent the stochastic spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19. While Markov Decision Processes (MDP) offers a mathematical framework for identifying optimal actions, such as vaccination and transmission-reducing intervention, to combat disease spreading according to the SEIR model. However, uncertainties in these scenarios demand a more robust approach that is less reliant on error-prone assumptions. The primary objective of our study is to introduce a new DRMDP framework that allows for an ambiguous distribution of transition dynamics. Specifically, we consider the worst-case distribution of these transition probabilities within a decision-dependent ambiguity set. To overcome the computational complexities associated with policy determination, we propose an efficient Real-Time Dynamic Programming (RTDP) algorithm that is capable of computing optimal policies based on the reformulated DRMDP model in an accurate, timely, and scalable manner. Comparative analysis against the classic MDP model demonstrates that the DRMDP achieves a lower proportion of infections and susceptibilities at a reduced cost. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of IISE Transactions is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Gut microbiome alterations in patients with COVID-19-related coagulopathy.

COVID-19 is characterized by a predominantly prothrombotic state, which underlies severe disease and poor outcomes. Imbalances of the gut microbiome have been linked with abnormal hemostatic processes. Understanding the relationship between the gut microbiome and abnormal coagulation parameters in COVID-19 could provide a novel framework for the diagnosis and management of COVID-related coagulopathies (CRC). This cross-sectional study used shotgun metagenomic sequencing to examine the gut microbiota of patients with CRC (n = 66) and compared it to COVID control (CCs) (n = 27) and non-COVID control (NCs) (n = 22) groups. Three, 1, and 3 taxa were found enriched in CRCs, CCs, and NCs. Next, random forest models using 7 microbial biomarkers and differential clinical characteristics were constructed and achieved strong diagnostic potential in distinguishing CRC. Specifically, the most promising biomarker species for CRC were Streptococcus thermophilus, Enterococcus faecium, and Citrobacter portucalensis. Conversely, Enterobacteriaceae family and Fusicatenibacter genus are potentially protective against CRC in COVID patients. We further identified 4 species contributing to 20 MetaCyc pathways that were differentially abundant among groups, with S. thermophilus as the main coding species in CRCs. Our findings suggest that the alterations of gut microbiota compositional and functional profiles may influence the pathogenesis of CRC and that microbiota-based diagnosis and treatment could potentially benefit COVID patients in preventing and alleviating thrombosis-related clinical outcomes.

Violence on the front line: a qualitative comparative analysis of the causes of patient violence towards medical staff in China during the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19, reduced funding and a shortage of healthcare workers has led to growing international concern about patient violence towards medical staff in medical settings. As the number of reported physical and verbal assaults increases, many medical staff are considering leaving their positions due to the resulting impact on their mental and physical wellbeing, creating a critical need to understand the causes for violence towards medical staff working on the front line. This study aims to examine the causes for patient violence towards medical staff in China during the COVID-19 pandemic. A case library was created containing twenty reported incidents of patient violence towards medical staff during the pandemic in China. Based on the Triadic Reciprocal Determinism (TRD) theory, we identify the personal, environmental, and behavioral factors, that cause incidents of violence towards medical staff. The outcome was set as ‘Medical Staff Casualties', referring to whether, due to the violence experienced, the medical staff member was injured or died, or only experienced threatening or insulting behavior. Data was analyzed using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to clarify the relationship between the different conditions and their relationship with the outcome. The study's results reveal that Relationship Closeness is a necessary condition for patient violence in the presence of outcome. Secondly, four distinct types of causes for patient violence towards medical staff were identified: Strong Relationship Oriented Violence, Healthcare Resources and Services Mismatched Violence, Violence caused by Ineffective Patient-Physician Communication, and Ineffective Communication Superimposed Low Patient Compliance Violence. Scientific guidance is provided for the creation of measures to prevent future violence towards medical staff from occurring. Strict precautions should be taken for preventing violence to protect a healthy society and harmonious medical environment, emphasizing the need for joint governance of multiple participants.

The prognostic value of the Barthel Index for mortality in patients with COVID-19: A cross-sectional study.

Objective: This study aimed to analyze the association between the activity of daily living (ADL), coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and the value of the Barthel Index in predicting the prognosis of patients. Methods: This study included 398 patients with COVID-19, whose ADL at admission to hospital were assessed with the Barthel Index. The relationship between the index and the mortality risk of the patients was analyzed. Several regression models and a decision tree were established to evaluate the prognostic value of the index in COVID-19 patients. Results: The Barthel Index scores of deceased patients were significantly lower than that of discharged patients (median: 65 vs. 90, P < 0.001), and its decrease indicated an increased risk of mortality in patients (P < 0.001). After adjusting models for age, gender, temperature, pulse, respiratory rate, mean arterial pressure, oxygen saturation, etc., the Barthel Index could still independently predict prognosis (OR = 0.809; 95% CI: 0.750-0.872). The decision tree showed that patients with a Barthel Index of below 70 had a higher mortality rate (33.3-40.0%), while those above 90 were usually discharged (mortality: 2.7-7.2%). Conclusion: The Barthel Index is of prognostic value for mortality in COVID-19 patients. According to their Barthel Index, COVID-19 patients can be divided into emergency, observation, and normal groups (0-70; 70-90; 90-100), with different treatment strategies.

The prognostic value of the Barthel Index for mortality in patients with COVID-19: A cross-sectional study

Objective This study aimed to analyze the association between the activity of daily living (ADL), coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and the value of the Barthel Index in predicting the prognosis of patients. Methods This study included 398 patients with COVID-19, whose ADL at admission to hospital were assessed with the Barthel Index. The relationship between the index and the mortality risk of the patients was analyzed. Several regression models and a decision tree were established to evaluate the prognostic value of the index in COVID-19 patients. Results The Barthel Index scores of deceased patients were significantly lower than that of discharged patients (median: 65 vs. 90, P < 0.001), and its decrease indicated an increased risk of mortality in patients (P < 0.001). After adjusting models for age, gender, temperature, pulse, respiratory rate, mean arterial pressure, oxygen saturation, etc., the Barthel Index could still independently predict prognosis (OR = 0.809;95% CI: 0.750–0.872). The decision tree showed that patients with a Barthel Index of below 70 had a higher mortality rate (33.3–40.0%), while those above 90 were usually discharged (mortality: 2.7–7.2%). Conclusion The Barthel Index is of prognostic value for mortality in COVID-19 patients. According to their Barthel Index, COVID-19 patients can be divided into emergency, observation, and normal groups (0–70;70–90;90–100), with different treatment strategies.

Towards a global One Health index: a potential assessment tool for One Health performance.

BACKGROUND: A One Health approach has been increasingly mainstreamed by the international community, as it provides for holistic thinking in recognizing the close links and inter-dependence of the health of humans, animals and the environment. However, the dearth of real-world evidence has hampered application of a One Health approach in shaping policies and practice. This study proposes the development of a potential evaluation tool for One Health performance, in order to contribute to the scientific measurement of One Health approach and the identification of gaps where One Health capacity building is most urgently needed. METHODS: We describe five steps towards a global One Health index (GOHI), including (i) framework formulation; (ii) indicator selection; (iii) database building; (iv) weight determination; and (v) GOHI scores calculation. A cell-like framework for GOHI is proposed, which comprises an external drivers index (EDI), an intrinsic drivers index (IDI) and a core drivers index (CDI). We construct the indicator scheme for GOHI based on this framework after multiple rounds of panel discussions with our expert advisory committee. A fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is adopted to determine the weights for each of the indicators. RESULTS: The weighted indicator scheme of GOHI comprises three first-level indicators, 13 second-level indicators, and 57 third-level indicators. According to the pilot analysis based on the data from more than 200 countries/territories the GOHI scores overall are far from ideal (the highest score of 65.0 out of a maximum score of 100), and we found considerable variations among different countries/territories (31.8-65.0). The results from the pilot analysis are consistent with the results from a literature review, which suggests that a GOHI as a potential tool for the assessment of One Health performance might be feasible. CONCLUSIONS: GOHI-subject to rigorous validation-would represent the world's first evaluation tool that constructs the conceptual framework from a holistic perspective of One Health. Future application of GOHI might promote a common understanding of a strong One Health approach and provide reference for promoting effective measures to strengthen One Health capacity building. With further adaptations under various scenarios, GOHI, along with its technical protocols and databases, will be updated regularly to address current technical limitations, and capture new knowledge.

Case report: Myocarditis following COVID-19 protein subunit vaccination.

We report findings in a 34-year-old female patient who presented with fulminant myocarditis 8 days after receiving the first dose of the ZF2001 RBD-subunit vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Autopsy showed severe interstitial myocarditis, including multiple patchy infiltrations of lymphocytes and monocytes in the myocardium of the left and right ventricular walls associated with myocyte degeneration and necrosis. This report highlights the details of clinical presentations and autopsy findings of myocarditis after ZF2001 (RBD-subunit vaccine) vaccination. The correlation between vaccination and death due to myocarditis is discussed.

Consideration of COVID-19 beyond the human-centred approach of prevention and control: the ONE-HEALTH perspective.

Most of the new emerging and re-emerging zoonotic virus outbreaks in recent years stem from close interaction with dead or alive infected animals. Since late 2019, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread into 221 countries and territories resulting in close to 300 million known infections and 5.4 million deaths in addition to a huge impact on both public health and the world economy. This paper reviews the COVID-19 prevalence in animals, raise concerns about animal welfare and discusses the role of environment in the transmission of COVID-19. Attention is drawn to the One Health concept as it emphasizes the environment in connection with the risk of transmission and establishment of diseases shared between animals and humans. Considering the importance of One Health for an effective response to the dissemination of infections of pandemic character, some unsettled issues with respect to COVID-19 are highlighted.

Hope During the COVID-19 Epidemic Decreased Anxiety and Depression Symptoms Mediated by Perceived Stress: Coping Style Differences Among Patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate whether perceived stress mediated the relationship between hope and anxiety/depression symptoms among patients with COVID-19 during the epidemic. In addition, the potential moderating effect of coping styles was examined. METHODS: From February 26 to March 10, 2020, patients with COVID-19 were asked to complete a questionnaire online, which included demographic characteristics, as well as the SCL-90-Anxiety, SCL-90-Depression, Chinese Perceived Stress Scale (CPSS), Herth Hope Index (HHI), and Trait Coping Style Questionnaire (TCSQ). Hierarchical linear regression was performed to explore independent factors of anxiety/depression. A multi-group structural equation modeling with the collected data from patients in the Negative Coping style (NC) group and Positive Coping style (PC) group was used to test the hypothesized mechanism. RESULTS: In total, 382 valid questionnaires of patients were obtained, including 96 from NC patients and 286 from PC patients. In the hierarchical linear regression, hope and perceived stress were independent risk factors for both anxiety and depression in the total sample and PC group. However, hope was not independently related to anxiety/depression in the NC group. As hypothesized, the hope of patients had significant and negative indirect effects on both anxiety and depression that were mediated by perceived stress, However, the direct effect from stress on anxiety and depression was stronger for NC patients than for PC patients. Besides, hope had significant direct effects on anxiety/depression in PC patients, but not in NC patients. CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 epidemic, perceived stress could mediate the relationship between hope and anxiety/depression symptoms among COVID-19 patients, with coping style moderating this cultivation process.

Gastrointestinal symptoms in patients hospitalized with COVID-19: Prevalence and outcomes.

ABSTRACT: To characterize outcomes in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who present with gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms.Clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19 associated with GI symptoms have been inconsistent in the literature.The study design is a retrospective analysis of patients, age 18 years or older, admitted to the hospital after testing positive for COVID-19. Clinical outcomes included intensive care unit requirements, rates of discharges to home, rates of discharges to outside facilities, and mortality.Seven hundred fifty patients met the inclusion criteria. Three hundred seventy three (49.7%) patients presented with at least one GI symptom and 377 (50.3%) patients presented with solely non-GI symptoms. Patients who presented with at least one GI symptom had significantly lower ICU requirements (17.4% vs 20.2%), higher rates of discharges home (77.2% vs 67.4%), lower rates of discharges to other facilities (16.4% vs 22.8%), and decreased mortality (6.4% vs 9.8%) compared with patients with non-GI symptoms. However, patients who presented with solely GI symptoms had significantly higher ICU requirements (23.8% vs 17.0%), lower rates of discharges home (52.4% vs 78.7%), higher rates of discharges to facilities (28.6% vs 15.6%), and higher mortality (19.0% vs 5.7%) compared with those with mixed GI and non-GI symptoms.Although patients with COVID-19 requiring hospitalization with GI symptoms did better than those without GI symptoms, those with isolated GI symptoms without extra-GI symptoms had worse clinical outcomes. COVID-19 should be considered in patients who present with new onset or worsening diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain even without pulmonary symptoms.

Effects of isometric handgrip exercise with or without blood flow restriction on interference control and feelings.

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether isometric handgrip exercise, with or without blood flow restriction, would alter interference control and feelings. 60 healthy young adults completed three experimental visits, consisting of four sets of 2 min isometric handgrip exercise, at 30% of maximal strength with or without blood flow restriction (50% of arterial occlusion pressure), or a non-exercise/time-matched control. Exercise-induced feeling inventory and Stroop Color Word Test were performed at pre- and ~10-min post-exercise, respectively. Bayes factors (BF10 ) quantified the evidence for or against the null. There were no changes or differences between conditions for interference control following exercise with or without blood flow restriction (Incongruent BF10 : 0.155; Stroop Interference BF10 : 0.082). There were also no differences in the error rate as well as no differences between conditions for changes in 'positivity' or 'revitalization'. Feelings of 'tranquility' were reduced relative to a control following exercise with (median δ [95% credible interval]: -0.74 (-1.05, -0.45), BF10 : 5515.7) and without (median δ: -0.72 [-1.02, -0.41], BF10 : 571.3) blood flow restriction. These changes were not different between exercise conditions. Feelings of 'physical exhaustion' were increased relative to a control following exercise without blood flow restriction (median δ: 0.35[0.09, 0.61], BF10 : 5.84). However, this increase was not different from the same exercise with blood flow restriction. These results suggest that 1) isometric handgrip exercise could be performed without impairing interference control, even when blood flow restriction is added, and that 2) changes in feelings occur independent of changes in interference control.

Major Impact of Coping Styles on Anxiety and Depression Symptoms in Healthcare Workers During the Outbreak of COVID-19

Background In the early days of COVID-19 outbreak, the normally orderly health system was severely challenged by large numbers of feverish patients and shortage of healthcare workers. The outbreak played a harmful role in the mental health of these healthcare workers. Objective We aim to assess the prevalence of moderate or severe anxiety and depression symptoms (ADSs) of healthcare workers in different regions during COVID-19 disaster and identify the potential risk factors. Methods We did a cross-sectional study on ADS of healthcare workers in epicenter-Hubei province and regions in lower epidemic-other provinces by questionnaire online. The data of ADS, the demographic characteristics, occupational exposure, physical condition, family situation, and coping styles were collected and analyzed. Results A total of 24.68% of the respondents had experienced moderate or severe ADS. Moderate or severe ADSs were in a higher prevalence in Hubei (32.39%) than other provinces (18.22%). Suspicious symptoms on their own and in family members were independent risk factors of moderate or severe ADS of all health workers. Working on the frontline was the independent risk factor for participants in Hubei province, whereas quarantine was the independent risk factor for those in other provinces. Moreover, among all participants, those with negative coping style were more than four times more likely to have moderate or severe ADS than those with positive coping style. Conclusion Moderate or severe ADSs were in a higher prevalence in healthcare workers of Hubei province during COVID-19 outbreak. The coping style may have major impact on ADS in such situation.

Alternation of the Autonomic Nervous System Is Associated With Pulmonary Sequelae in Patients With COVID-19 After Six Months of Discharge.

Previous studies suggest that autonomic dysfunction is associated with disease severity in acute phase in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the association between autonomic dysfunction and pulmonary sequelae in patients with COVID-19 is unknown. We conducted a prospective study to investigate the association between autonomic dysfunction and pulmonary sequelae in patients with COVID-19 discharged for 6 months. We included 40 eligible participants and collected the following indicators: heart rate variability (HRV), pulmonary function tests (PFTs), lung X-ray computed tomography (CT), routine blood parameters, liver function parameters, and lymphocyte subsets. We found that at 6 months post-discharge, HRV still had a tight correlation with pulmonary fibrosis. There was a significant difference in HRV between patients with and without diffusion dysfunction, but HRV did not differ between patients with or without ventilatory dysfunction. Diffusion dysfunction and pulmonary fibrosis were tightly associated, and HRV index changes in patients with diffusion dysfunction had the same trend as that of patients with pulmonary fibrosis. They had a lower standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN), the standard deviation of the average NN intervals (SDANN), and the triangular index, but a higher ratio between LF and HF power (LF/HF). In addition, WBC, neutrophils, and CD4/CD8 were correlated with pulmonary fibrosis and HRV. We concluded that autonomic dysfunction is closely associated with pulmonary fibrosis and diffusion dysfunction, and immune mechanisms may potentially contribute to this process.

Reliable and Interpretable Mortality Prediction With Strong Foresight in COVID-19 Patients: An International Study From China and Germany.

Cohort-independent robust mortality prediction model in patients with COVID-19 infection is not yet established. To build up a reliable, interpretable mortality prediction model with strong foresight, we have performed an international, bi-institutional study from China (Wuhan cohort, collected from January to March) and Germany (Würzburg cohort, collected from March to September). A Random Forest-based machine learning approach was applied to 1,352 patients from the Wuhan cohort, generating a mortality prediction model based on their clinical features. The results showed that five clinical features at admission, including lymphocyte (%), neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, and α-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase, could be used for mortality prediction of COVID-19 patients with more than 91% accuracy and 99% AUC. Additionally, the time-series analysis revealed that the predictive model based on these clinical features is very robust over time when patients are in the hospital, indicating the strong association of these five clinical features with the progression of treatment as well. Moreover, for different preexisting diseases, this model also demonstrated high predictive power. Finally, the mortality prediction model has been applied to the independent Würzburg cohort, resulting in high prediction accuracy (with above 90% accuracy and 85% AUC) as well, indicating the robustness of the model in different cohorts. In summary, this study has established the mortality prediction model that allowed early classification of COVID-19 patients, not only at admission but also along the treatment timeline, not only cohort-independent but also highly interpretable. This model represents a valuable tool for triaging and optimizing the resources in COVID-19 patients.

COVID-19 infection in patients with multiple myeloma: a German-Chinese experience from Wurzburg and Wuhan

In total, we identified five Caucasian patients from Wurzburg (Nos. 1-5) and three Asian patients from Wuhan (Nos. 6-8). The majority of the patients were male (n = 5, 63%), and the median age at COVID-19 diagnosis was 57 (range 39-83 years). The three patients from Wuhan were infected by COVID-19 in January or February 2020, while the Wurzburg patients were diagnosed in March or April 2020. Due to COVID-19 infection, anti-MM treatment was discontinued in all the patients. Notably, two patients (Nos. 3-4) in Wurzburg showed no COVID-19 symptoms, and the other three patients (Nos. 1, 2, and 5) exhibited only mild symptoms such as fever, cough, and nausea, which did not require an intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Interestingly, approximately 3 weeks after diagnosis, as the patient No. 6 was discharged and the swab was also negative for COVID-19, both COVID-19 IgM and IgG were tested negative in this patient. In four patients from Wurzburg, we also performed COVID-19 antibody test after recovery, and three of them (Nos. 1, 2, and 5) showed positive IgG, while one patient (No. 3) did not develop IgG or IgM against COVID-19. This finding suggested inadequate humoral immune response in MM patients, probably due to secondary immune deficiency caused by the treatments or the disease itself. This observation suggested that it might be a nosocomial infection in this patient. After recovery, two patients from Wurzburg received MM therapy, i.e., lenalidomide maintenance in one patient and DARA-VRCD (daratumumab, bortezomib, lenalidomide, cyclophosphamide, and dexamethasone) in another patient with NDMM.

Characteristics of patients with ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) at the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has become a new challenge to the medical system in various countries. The patients with ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) were also affected. METHODS: We used a random-effects mode to analyze the differences of the baseline characteristics and therapeutic features between STEMI patients admitted before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Thirty eight studies involving 79,753 patients were included in this analysis. The number of hospitalized STEMI patients decreased by 26% after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. There were no differences in age, sex, prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia or percutaneous coronary intervention rate between the STEMI patients before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the STEMI patients admitted after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic had a significantly increased time from symptom onset to first medical contact (standard mean difference: 0.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.24-0.78, p < .001) and an increased in-hospital mortality (odds ratio: 1.70, 95% confidence interval:1.14-2.56, p < .001); The in-hospital mortality of the STEMI patients with COVID-19 was 24% (95% confidence interval: 0.15-0.33); The in-hospital mortality of the STEMI patients with COVID-19 was significantly higher than that of the STEMI patients without COVID-19 at the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (odds ratio: 7.28, 95% confidence interval: 2.75-19.28, p < .001). CONCLUSION: The number of admitted STEMI patients was reduced while the in-hospital mortality and the time from symptom onset to first medical contact were increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.